Assessment of Vegetation Cover Change for Security Management in Kaduna South Senatorial District, Kaduna State, Nigeria

Abstract

Vegetation dynamics pose critical security challenges, as forested and bushy landscapes provide concealment for armed groups, bandits, and kidnappers, thereby undermining law enforcement and surveillance efforts. This study examines vegetation cover change in Kaduna South Senatorial District, Nigeria, between 2014 and 2024, with implications on security management as it relates to kidnapping incidences. The study pursued four objectives: to identify the spatial distribution of vegetation cover changes, analyze their temporal trends and assess the relationship between environmental dynamics and kidnapping incidences. The research integrated geospatial data and techniques-including Landsat (ETM and OLI) imagery, GIS analysis, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) - with field surveys, police kidnapping data, and community questionnaires across eight Local Government Areas (LGAs) which constitutes the Senatorial District. Results reveal notable vegetation transitions: Kidnapping Incidence analysis identified Zangon Kataf LGA (20%) and Kagarko LGA (20%) as high-risk LGAs, with kidnapping clusters occurring near roads, water bodies, and critical infrastructures. The decade-long vegetation cover analysis shows a major ecological decline with security implications. Moderate vegetation, once dominant in 2014 (53.75%), decreased by 2024 (52.92 %), while dense vegetation also decreased (-5.52%) due to ongoing degradation. Sparse vegetation briefly increased (14.85%) before declining (6.13%), indicating fragmentation of denser areas, and very sparse vegetation remained low and stable, reflecting persistently degraded landscapes. Vegetation degradation exacerbates security risks by exposing infrastructure and diminishing natural surveillance. Eco-security framework combining environmental management and proactive policing to strengthen resilience and reduce security threats in Kaduna South Senatorial District are recommended.