EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CEREAL PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA

Abstract

Climatic elements are important inputs in agricultural production in developing countries, implying that most of the staple food produced is from climate-dependent agricultural practices. This study investigated the effects of climate change on cereal production in Nigeria. The annual secondary data used was from 1985 to 2022. Deterministic trend analysis, Augmented Dickey Fuller Test, Johansen Co-Integration Test, and Augmented Regressive Distributive Lag Model. The result shows that there was evidence of a trend in the average annual rainfall (β=7.36; p=0.00), average annual temperature (0.03; p= 0.00), annual CO₂ emission (β=2.02; p= 0.00), and annual cereal production (β=381098; p=0.00) in Nigeria. In the long run, previous value of temperature (β= 3826547; p=0.00) and land under cereal production (β=1.325; P=0.00) have a positive effect on cereal production, while previous value of rainfall (β=-23987.60; p=0.00) and population growth rate (β=-1.2E7; p=0.00) have a negative effect on cereal production in Nigeria. In the short run, the previous value of rainfall (β=8815.253; p=0.00) has positive effect on cereal production, while the current value of rainfall (β=-6270.92; p=0.00) and, previous value of temperature (β=-1218286; p=0.04) have a negative effect on cereal production. It was also confirmed that there was no significant relationship between CO₂ emissions and cereal production. Thus, cereal production is susceptible to climate change, that both the previous and the current weather elements. To reduce these effects, this study recommends that innovative and sustainable farming, which requires less use of resources, prevents land degradation, supports climate resilience, and ultimately improves productivity and productivity should be encouraged.